2019 Australian Federal Election Prediction
Polls are showing roughly a 51% / 49% advantage to Labor over the Coalition, two party preferred
But
- Polls are more skewed towards old folk than ever – people at home who answer landlines
- More young folk are enrolled than ever, thanks to the gay marriage referendum
- The swing seats matter the most, and polling in those is too small to really know
- Climate change is the #1 issue, being ignored by the Coalition, and championed by the Greens
- Voters have noticed that following how-to-vote cards has led to some odd senators
In the lower house, I predict that Labor/Greens will win with a 5-10 seat margin over the Coalition, and not need any/many independents to achieve whatever they aspire to.
In the Senate, much harder to predict. It could have the most minor parties ever. It probably won’t have a Labor majority, because people are thinking checks and balances…