Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Global Warming - A Good Thing?
I think global warming is a good thing.
I think it will inspire new technologies that not only will be good for the environment, but will greatly improve our standards of living.
Using fossil fuels is terribly inefficient, and is far more efficient at large scales - you or I are unlikely to be able to dig for coal or oil in our backyard.
Eco-friendly energy production tends to scale downwards well - anyone can place a turbine in a stream, or put up a small wind turbine.
Solar power technology is almost at the point where it will make sense to install, because the long-term average cost will be the same as mains electricity. It looks like it will get there even if governments do not do the right thing and subsidise it (only some do).
Once we reach that point, everyone who doesn't live day-by-day will install it. The cash-strapped might be able to pay for it in installments equivalent to their current power bill.
Then it will be a huge industry, and the combination of large-scale production and competition will create enormous increases in cost reduction and efficiency.
I predict that in 10-20 years from now we will consider solar energy to be virtually free. For the first time in history, the cost of running something will not be a consideration. While this will greatly benefit the third world, it will be a nightmare in the west - one example, imagine if cars cost nothing to run!
Actually, the more I think about it, the more it sounds like the benefits of free energy could be negated, because there will be less constraints on so many things - like armed forces. Imagine 10,000 un-manned solar drones with laser weapons!
Here's an example of what the future holds - this rubbish bin has a built-in solar-powered compacter. So for the price of free (even if it is always cloudy), you can fit in 5x more trash, which means 1/5 as many garbage trucks...
I think it will inspire new technologies that not only will be good for the environment, but will greatly improve our standards of living.
Using fossil fuels is terribly inefficient, and is far more efficient at large scales - you or I are unlikely to be able to dig for coal or oil in our backyard.
Eco-friendly energy production tends to scale downwards well - anyone can place a turbine in a stream, or put up a small wind turbine.
Solar power technology is almost at the point where it will make sense to install, because the long-term average cost will be the same as mains electricity. It looks like it will get there even if governments do not do the right thing and subsidise it (only some do).
Once we reach that point, everyone who doesn't live day-by-day will install it. The cash-strapped might be able to pay for it in installments equivalent to their current power bill.
Then it will be a huge industry, and the combination of large-scale production and competition will create enormous increases in cost reduction and efficiency.
I predict that in 10-20 years from now we will consider solar energy to be virtually free. For the first time in history, the cost of running something will not be a consideration. While this will greatly benefit the third world, it will be a nightmare in the west - one example, imagine if cars cost nothing to run!
Actually, the more I think about it, the more it sounds like the benefits of free energy could be negated, because there will be less constraints on so many things - like armed forces. Imagine 10,000 un-manned solar drones with laser weapons!
Here's an example of what the future holds - this rubbish bin has a built-in solar-powered compacter. So for the price of free (even if it is always cloudy), you can fit in 5x more trash, which means 1/5 as many garbage trucks...
Labels: energy, global warming, solar power
